Being that MicroStrategy is pioneering a new corporate treasury strategy based on the idea of Bitcoin and have subsequently coined themselves as a Bitcoin Treasury Company, it begs the question how do you evaluate the performance of a company like MicroStrategy?
I like to start with the premise that all public companies are based upon. It is the goal of a public company to increase shareholder value. Most companies are traditionally valued based off their earnings or future projected earnings and are typically expressed through metrics like EPS (earnings per share) and PE (price to earnings) ratios. The idea is that as in investor you want to have more value represented by you shares meaning you want more earnings per share.
MicroStrategy is unique as their strategy is not necessarily focused on increasing their earnings, but rather its goal is to issue debt/shares to increase their Bitcoin holdings, and more specifically they are looking to increase their Bitcoin holdings on a per share basis.
Being that they are a corporate company with a profitable software business, have an incredibly liquid and volatile stock, and have a committed shareholder base that understands their strategy, they can issue convertible debt and new shares cheaply and easily to buy Bitcoin. This is an ability that most individuals and investors do not have on their own and is why I view MicroStrategy as a tool to maximize Bitcoin exposure.
The basic premise of their strategy and what you are buying into is that Bitcoin is a revolutionary technology that will continue to grow in adoption and will be worth significantly more in the future than it is today, meaning that it makes sense to acquire as much Bitcoin while the price of it is relatively low compared to future projections as the more Bitcoin they own means the company will be worth more in the future.
Since their strategy and their goal it to buy as much Bitcoin as they can, it makes sense to value them accordingly. Most public companies are valued based off their earnings and more specifically earnings on a per share basis, so being that MicroStrategy’s whole game plan is centered around acquiring Bitcoin, it makes sense to value them based off the amount of Bitcoin they have and how much Bitcoin there is per share.
You can think of BTC/share similar to Book Value/Share (this metric measures the net asset value of a company on a per share basis), but in this case we are looking specifically at Bitcoin, and the metric used to evaluate how well they are doing at increasing this number is called BTC Yield (change in BTC/share)
Thinking of it from a shareholder’s perspective, I believe in the idea that Bitcoin is a revolutionary technology and think it will be worth more in the future, MicroStrategy could also earn a return on their holdings in the future, and because of this I would rather have more Bitcoin associated with my position further emphasizing why one should focus on BTC/share.
Just a quick disclaimer here, owning MicroStrategy stock does not give you any control or allow you to hold any of their Bitcoin, you cannot convert your shares directly to Bitcoin, but instead I view MicroStrategy as a tool to maximize your Bitcoin exposure. The opportunity for BTC Yield gives you the ability to passively increase the amount of Bitcoin associated with your position while you simply hold MSTR. Because of this your position will benefit both from the appreciation in Bitcoin’s price as well as the increase in BTC/share. How I like to think about it is when investing in MicroStrategy you sacrifice holding the Bitcoin yourself for the opportunity to outperform Bitcoin.
Another reason why I think BTC/share is the metric to focus on is that it is at the base at which one values MicroStrategy and more specifically an MSTR share. This idea is reflected in how most people refer to MicroStrategy’s valuation. They typically refer to it as a multiple to whatever the value of their Bitcoin holdings are with most of the debate and controversy over what multiple they should be trading at. At the base of that multiple is the amount of Bitcoin they have, and as they acquire more Bitcoin that base becomes larger. How I view it is that it is almost the floor at which the company and share price is valued at. It is MicroStrategy’s goal with their Bitcoin strategy to continue to increase this baseline to further increase the value for their company and shareholders.
MSTR Share Price: BTC/Share x BTC Price x BTC Multiple
MSTR Market Cap: # of BTC Owned x BTC Price x BTC Multiple
Naturally as an MSTR shareholder I would want more BTC/share and as we will find out having a higher multiple makes it easier to increase that metric.
Just as public companies trade at a multiple to their earnings, MicroStrategy trades at a multiple to their BTC holdings, and the higher the multiple they trade at the more BTC Yield (increase in BTC/share) they can generate, which is illustrated by the following examples of an ATM share offering to raise capital to buy Bitcoin.
For the following examples let’s say MicroStrategy starts with
– 400,000 Bitcoin
– Price of Bitcoin is $100,000
– 250,000,000 MSTR shares outstanding
Scenario #1: MSTR Market Cap:BTC Holdings Value Multiple = 1
MSTR Market Cap: $40 billion
BTC Holdings Value: $40 billion
BTC/share: .0016
MicroStrategy issues 10% new shares in ATM share offering to raise $4 billion ($40 billion x 10%) to buy Bitcoin
New MSTR Market Cap: $44 billion ($40 billion plus $4 billion share offering)
MSTR Count: 275,000,000 (250,000,000 10% new shares from offering)
Amount of BTC Bought: 40,000 ($4 billion/$100,000 BTC Price)
Total BTC Held 440,000 (400,000 + 40,000)
BTC Holdings Value: $44 billion (440,000 BTC at a Price of $100,000)
BTC/Share: .0016 (440,000/275,000,000)
MSTR:BTC Multiple: 1 ($44 billion/$44 billion)
BTC/share Change (BTC Yield): 0% ((.0016-.0016)/.0016)
Multiple Change: 0% ((1-1)/1)
Scenario #2: MSTR Market Cap:BTC Holdings Value Multiple = 2
MSTR Market Cap: $80 billion
BTC Holdings Value: $40 billion
BTC/share: .0016
MicroStrategy issues 10% new shares in ATM share offering to raise $8 billion ($80 billion x 10%) to buy Bitcoin
New MSTR Market Cap: $88 billion ($80 billion plus $8 billion share offering)
MSTR Count: 275,000,000 (250,000,000 10% new shares from offering)
Amount of BTC Bought: 80,000 ($8 billion/$100,000 BTC Price)
Total BTC Held 480,000 (400,000 + 80,000)
BTC Holdings Value: $48 billion (480,000 BTC at a Price of $100,000)
BTC/Share: .001745 (480,000/275,000,000)
MSTR:BTC Multiple: 1.833 ($88 billion/$48 billion)
BTC/share Change (BTC Yield): 9.09% ((.001745-.0016)/.0016)
Multiple Change: -8.33% ((1.83-2)/2)
Scenario #3: MSTR Market Cap:BTC Holdings Value Multiple = 5
MSTR Market Cap: $200 billion
BTC Holdings Value: $40 billion
BTC/share: .0016
MicroStrategy issues 10% new shares in ATM share offering to raise $20 billion ($200 billion x 10%) to buy Bitcoin
New MSTR Market Cap: $20 billion ($200 billion plus $20 billion share offering)
MSTR Count: 275,000,000 (250,000,000 10% new shares from offering)
Amount of BTC Bought: 200,000 ($20 billion/$100,000 BTC Price)
Total BTC Held 600,000 (400,000 + 200,000)
BTC Holdings Value: $60 billion (600,000 BTC at a Price of $100,000)
BTC/Share: .002181 (600,000/275,000,000)
MSTR:BTC Multiple: 3.67 ($220 billion/$60 billion)
BTC/share Change (BTC Yield): 36.36% ((.002181-.0016)/.0016)
Multiple Change: -26.67% ((3.67-5)/5)
As shown in these examples, it is much easier for MicroStrategy to be able to increase BTC/share (generate BTC Yield) when the multiple is higher.
An interesting thing to note is that when MSTR is trading at a premium (BTC Multiple of over 1) to their Bitcoin holdings and they issue new shares to buy Bitcoin, their multiple premium actually goes down assuming the share price stays the same before and after the share offering. In the example where the BTC Multiple is 5, it drops all the way down to 3.67 after they offer shares to buy more Bitcoin. All the while, they are able to generate BTC Yield and increase BTC/share by 67%.
MicroStrategy will now be worth more in the future as they now have more Bitcoin, and as a shareholder I now have more of the hardest asset ever created represented by my position, increasing the future value of my shares.
I think people get caught up with MicroStrategy trading at a premium to their Bitcoin holdings is because they view it as a Bitcoin holding company when it should be viewed as a Bitcoin buying machine. The premium they trade at is the engine they use to achieve BTC Yield. The higher the premium the more BTC Yield they can generate. Without a premium they cannot achieve any BTC Yield.
There is not necessarily a single multiple that MSTR should be trading at relative to its BTC holdings, but if it is their goal to acquire as much Bitcoin as they can and shareholders want as much Bitcoin represented by their position as they can then it makes sense for them to be trading at a higher multiple.
This remains true as long as investors and MicroStrategy’s team believe that Bitcoin’s price will continue to go up in the future and MicroStrategy will continue to issue debt and shares to buy more Bitcoin. If either of these two ideas were not true, then it would not make sense for them to be trading at a premium. Why issue a bunch of debt and share dilution to buy an asset that will not go up in value, and why trade at a premium to their holdings if MicroStrategy will not lever up, you could just buy an ETF at that point.
The whole value proposition of MicroStrategy is that you increase your Bitcoin exposure passively. As you hold your MSTR shares and MicroStrategy enacts their Bitcoin buying strategy, the amount of Bitcoin represented by your shares goes up. They can do this because they are a profitable public company that has the special ability to raise loads of capital, in which they then use to buy Bitcoin. This is something an individual could never do on their own, especially at this scale, and it is why i view MicroStrategy as tool for investors to increase their Bitcoin exposure. BTC/share is the metric to be looking at, and BTC Yield is the measure of how well they are growing this metric. The higher the multiple MicroStrategy trades at to their Bitcoin holdings, the more these metrics increase when capital is raised to buy more Bitcoin.